COVID-19 Data Analysis: United States and Texas

A COVID-19 Data Analysis indicates US and Texas death rates are stable after an April 14, 2020 jump. Four 30,000-foot-level analyses of new cases and fatalities for the United States and Texas indicate stability but the levels are very high.

The following analyses apply a 30,000-foot-level process-output metric tracking methodology. This high-level time-series tracking approach analyzes the output of a process to determine if the response is stable. If stability exists, the 30,000-foot-level report-out provides a prediction statement.  If the prediction statement is undesirable, there needs to be a positive change to the inputs to the process to improve the output’s response level.

The data sets used in this analysis are listed at the bottom of this post.  People often say that COVID-19 reported data is flawed for various reasons, including insufficient testing and test accuracy.  I will not disagree, but sometimes you need to work with what you have. Because of this, the absolute numbers in this analysis may not be accurate, but it would seem that trends should be similar to the “truth”.

US COVID-19 Data Analysis Summary: Using 30,000-foot-level Reporting and Analysis Techniques

A 30,000-foot-level data analyses on April 19, 2020, indicate that the number of new cases and fatalities from COVID-19 in the United States has stabilized; however the magnitude of this stabilization is not good.

A summary of the US analyses is:

  • The number of daily COVID-19 new cases in the United States appears to be stable and predictable. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 new cases is 30,024. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 25,837 and 34,211 new cases.
  • The number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in the United States appears to be stable and predictable since a jump in the frequency of deaths on 4-15-2020. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in the United States is now 3,052. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 1425 and 4679 deaths.

Texas COVID-19 Data Analysis Summary: Using 30,000-foot-level Reporting and Analysis Techniques

A 30,000-foot-level data analyses on April 19, 2020, indicate that the number of new cases and fatalities from COVID-19 in Texas has stabilized; however, the magnitude of this stabilization is not good.

A summary of the Texas analyses is:

  • The number of daily COVID-19 new cases in Texas appears to be stable and predictable. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 new cases is 824. There is also a mathematical expectation that in Texas, four out of five days will have between 533 and 1115 new cases.
  • The number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in Texas appears to be stable and predictable since a jump in the frequency of deaths on 4-14-2020. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in Texas is now 32. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 21 and 42 deaths.

30,000-foot-level COVID-19: United States Data Analysis

A 30,000-foot-level plot and response analysis for United States new cases is:

COVID-19 Data Analysis, United States

 

30,000-foot-level Metric Report-out Interpretation

The number of daily COVID-19 United States new cases has increased since the middle of March 2020 and is now both stable and considered predictable, unless something good or bad, from a process point of view, occurs.

The number of daily COVID-19 new cases in the United States appears to be stable and predictable. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 new cases is 30,024. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 25,837 and 34,211 new cases.

 

A 30,000-foot-level plot and response analysis for United States fatalities is:

COVID-19 Data Analysis, United States

 

 30,000-foot-level Metric Report-out Interpretation

The number of daily COVID-19 United States fatalities has increased since the middle of March 2020 and is now both stable and considered predictable, unless something good or bad, from a process point of view, occurs.

The number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in the United States appears to be stable and predictable since a jump in the frequency of deaths on 4-15-2020. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in the United States is now 3,052. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 1425 and 4679 deaths.

 

30,000-foot-level COVID-19: Texas Data Analysis

A 30,000-foot-level plot and response analysis for Texas new cases is:

COVID-19 Data Analysis Texas

 

30,000-foot-level Metric Report-out Interpretation

The number of daily Texas COVID-19 new cases has increased since the middle of March 2020 (one time with a jump) and is now both stable and considered predictable, unless something good or bad, from a process point of view, occurs.

The number of daily COVID-19 new cases in Texas appears to be stable and predictable. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 new cases is 824. There is also a mathematical expectation that in Texas, four out of five days will have between 533 and 1115 new cases.

 

A 30,000-foot-level plot and response analysis for Texas fatalities is:

COVID-19 Data Analysis Texas

30,000-foot-level Metric Report-out Interpretation

The number of daily Texas COVID-19 fatalities has jumped several times since the end of March 2020. The number of occurrences is now both stable and considered predictable, unless something good or bad, from a process point of view, occurs.

The number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in Texas appears to be stable and predictable since a jump in the frequency of deaths on 4-14-2020. A statistical estimation for the mean number of daily COVID-19 fatalities in Texas is now 32. There is also a mathematical expectation that four out of five days will have between 21 and 42 deaths.

 

Conclusions

The good news is that the frequency of COVID-19 new cases and fatalities is not increasing in both the United States and Texas.  The bad news is that the number of new cases and deaths is not decreasing.

The above analyses are from a statistical process-output point of view. If a process output is stable and predictable, something needs to occur differently, from a process point of view, to change the output response, COVID-19, in this case.

One thing that could occur from nature is that summer-time heat stops the spread of COVID-19. That would be wonderful!

What can we do? My thoughts are:

  • One would think that wearing masks would be a good thing to do to control COVID-19 spread.
  • If we “open things up” too quickly, that would be a change in the process that could make things worse – a lot worse.
  • Increasing the amount of COVID-19 testing is not an obvious solution to me to the problem itself. Additional testing could show that the numbers are much higher than currently reported.  We need to keep in mind that  there also can be false negatives and false positives. A small inaccuracy in COVID-19 measurements can have a considerable big-picture decision-making impact.
  • I hope for an effective treatment that can be mass distributed quickly! A vaccine will probably take some time to develop, test, and made available.

 Data Source: United States Analysis

The data that I used for the US 30,000-foot-level data analysis is available at:

Data Source: Texas

The data that I used for the Texas 30,000-foot-level data analysis is available at:

Data Analysis Discussion

Contact Us to set up a time to discuss with Forrest Breyfogle this coronavirus analyses and/or 30,000-foot-level reporting.